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Re: "No Bolides!"



I would like to add to the points forcefully made by Norm regarding the 
outrageous statements made by T. Lipka regarding dinosaur mass extinction 
(and the K-T mass extinction in general). 

The K-T extinction debate has largely been driven by the fallacy that 
there was a major, and sudden extinction of "dinosaurs" (i.e., large bodied,
 non-avian variety).  Those who profess that an extraterrestrial object
colliding with the earth caused the extinction of the "dinosaurs" 
(paraphyletic sense) have assumed this to be an established fact. 
 Indeed Alvarez et al. (1980) assumed that dinosaur extinction was "a 
given" (an established fact) when they offered up the asteroid impact 
theory as a way to explain their sudden extinction. From my perspective 
those who have jumped on the impact bandwagon have done so without 
critically analyzing the biostratigraphic and taxonomic data. 
Furthermore, many have embraced the physical (possibly circumstantial) 
evidence as proof, which it is not, that an impact caused the (apparent) 
mass extinction.  What has been lacking in most discussions concerning 
the extinction of dinosaurs, is whether or not there was a decline in the 
number of species before the K-T boundary. Determination of this can only 
be achieved by a critical look at the biostratigraphic distribution of 
dinosaur species (not families) as been done by Dale Russell (1975, 1982).

In a publication  that has been largely overlooked by the paleontological 
community, particularly here in the United States, I (Sullivan, 1987) 
reviewed the biostratigraphic distribution of valid "reptilian" taxa 
across the K-T boundary. I concluded that based on the fossil record, 
there was a decline in the number of valid dinosaur taxa by late 
Maastrichtian time. Moreover, the impression that dinosaurs were 
perceived as thriving organisms in the last days of the Mesozoic Era is 
largely an artifact of gross biostratigraphic resolution. The principal 
issue is now phylogenetic one, one that I will return to in a moment.

Peter Dodson (1990) wrote a important paper addressing the numbers of 
dinosaurs. He tabulated the number of named taxa for the entire Mesozoic 
Era and contrasted them to the number he felt were valid. Out of the 540 
named dinosaur genera Dodson concluded that 285 were valid. Of the 800 
(or so) dinosaur species named he considered 336 as being valid (I remine 
you that these numbers are for the entire Mesozoic Era. He estimated that 
owing to the incomplete nature of the fossil record there may have been 
between 900 and 1200 genera of dinosaurs (an estimate that will never be 
proven). He proposed 3 models to explain dinosaur diversity and believe 
that his bottleneck model best fit the data. However, Dodson, like 
Russell before him, tabulated stratigraphic occurrences in a gross way 
(i.e. if a dinosaur was known solely from a single stratum, say of early 
Maastrichtian age, the age [range] of this taxon became early-late 
Maastrichtian). Consequently, Dodson (1990) interpreted the fossil record 
as exhibiting no decline in dinosaur species, but rather a increase 
during the late Maastrichian!!! In reality the opposite is true.

I have tabulated the number of valid species for the intervals late 
Campanian, early-middle Maastrichtian (I've put three putative middle 
Maastrichtian occurrences in with the early Maastrichtian  because of 
the uncertainty  in the age of taxa), and late Maastrichtian. There are 
presently 121 valid dinosaur species that are known from the late 
Campanian to late Maastrichtian. The average number of valid "dinosaur" 
species existing during the late Campanian is 69 (based on a maximum 
number of 81 and a minimum number of 57- the apparent "slop" is owing to the 
uncertainty of the stage/age of the stratum in which a particular taxon is 
from). The average number of "dinosaur" species that existed during the 
early-middle Maastrichtian is 58.5 (maximum number of 71 and a minimum of 
46). The average number of "dinosaur" species that existed during late 
Maastrichtian is 20 (based on a maximum number of 22 and a minimum number 
of 18). This later figure may inflated because some of the taxa may be 
synonymous such as Stygimoloch with Pachycephalosaurus. I believe that 
there are perhaps only 17 valid dinosaur from late Maastrichtian strata! 
This constitutes 6.7% of the non-avian dinosaurs that lived. The question 
is this: Does the elimination of 17 species of dinosaurs (or even 22) at 
the end of the Cretaceous constitute a mass extinction. I would argue 
that the numbers are consistent with dinosaur turnover within the 
Mesozoic. For example, if one looks at the numbers of dinosaur families (a 
position I normally do not advocate)  that existed in the early-middle 
Maastrichtian and compare them to the number of families in the late 
Maastrichtian there were 17 present in the former; and 9 in the latter 
for a reduction of 8 families!! The loss of the remaining 9 families in 
the late Maastrichtian has nearly the same magnitude! Keep in mind that 
many of these families were composed of few species. Only the 
Hadrosauridae which includes some 22 (putative) valid species (most of which 
are known from late Campanian strata) can be considered an exception  (note 
that only four hadrosaur species (Edmontosaurus annectens, E. regalis, E. 
saskatchewanensis and Anatotitan copei) are known from late 
Maastrichtian strata and the validity of all three Edmontosaurus species 
may also be questioned.

Then there is the classification of the Dinosauria. I think that we are 
beyond treating dinosaurs as a paraphyletic group. The traditional 
classification has profound implications for "dinosaur" extinction. First, 
it implies that the biology of non-avian dinosaurs is somehow unique, 
tying together vast groups such as the diverse ornithischians, 
sauropodomorphs and theropods. Second, because of their supposed unique
nature, they were selected for extinction over the avian dinosaurs 
(birds) and other vertebrates. It is generally accepted by most 
phylogenetic systematists that the Aves is nested within the Dinosauria 
and is not distinct from it. Common sense alone suggests that there may 
be something fundamentally wrong in the way that we have traditionally 
treated (classified) the dinosaurs. No other vertebrate group suffered
a mass extinction at the K-T boundary. Could this be the result of bad 
taxonomy? I think so.  

Their large size has often been cited as a reason for their extinction. 
There are a couple of problems with this hypothesis. First, not all 
"dinosaurs" were large, even those that were relatively small like 
Thescelosaurus, became extinct. Numerous large-bodied dinosaurs became 
extinct prior to the K-T boundary, leaving no successors, yet no one 
cites a bolide impact event as the cause for their extinction! Second, 
non-avian dinosaurs most certainly occupied diverse ecological niches. It 
is difficult to realized that such a group of diverse animals shared some 
common ecological denominator.

Finally, extinction, like evolution is a very complex  phenomenon. It 
cannot be explained by one pat (simplistic) answer (i.e. impact event). I 
have often remarked to my students that if the  "impactors" are correct,
we would not be here to debate it!

- Robert M. Sullivan



Selected references:

Dodson, P. 1990.  Counting dinosaurs: How many kinds were there?
             	Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, 
		87:7608-7612.
Sullivan, R. M. 1987. A reassessment of reptilian diversity across the 
		Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary. Contributions in Science,
		 Natural History Museum of Los Angeles County, Number 391,
		 1-26.