Re: Oil Futures

From
Date
Norm MacLedo wrote:

>For all of you who are tired of the "bolide/buster" strings how about
>discussing something REALLY speculative, the future of the oil biz. Last
>week I read an article in the London Times that suggested at current levels
>of consumption the world's proven oil reserves would only last until about
>2007. That's not too far away. First, is this true? People have been
>regularly predicting imminent oil shortages since the turn of the century.
>However, I think we all know that the oil can't last forever and that, at
>least in industrialized western countries, we've taken very few serious
>steps toward switching to other fuels, solar, nuclear, etc. Given the
>current data, when (if ever) will the shortage hit? How about political
>stability in the Middle East with Saudi Arabia running a deficit and all?
>Is another OPEC-style shortage likely?

Norm, 

I ran a few estimates in 1989, based upon the latest available figures and
some WAG on total extractable oil.  The estimates that I saw at the time
varied from 1200 Billion to 3500 Billion barrels, with most estimates
centering on 2000 Billion Barrels (Craig, Vaughn and Skinner, 1988,
Resources of the Earth, Prentice Hall).  Through 1986, estimated worldwide
cumulative production was an estimated 590 Billion barrels (ibid) and in
1987 world use was 20.5 Billion barrels (Oil and Gas Journal 1989,
87(5):49-62).  With those assumptions, and at those use rates, the world's
supply would last somewhat less than 68 years (I had estimated October 12,
4:48 pm, 2055 AD).  I haven't followed oil use rates in the last few years
and I am unsure how much higher (or lower) they are today.  I guess my
overall estimate was conserative as compared to the London Time story
(unless they were basing their calculation on Proven Reserves).  To answer
your first question, is it true?  Perhaps, man took 8000 years to use 30%
of the  world's total extractable oil.  It will only take about 70 years to
use the remainder.  

If anyone out there has more recent estimates on Total Extractable Oil I
would be interested in hearing about them.  I know that the estimates in
Craig et al were based on Hubbert 1971 (Scientific American, 224(3):60-70)
and I don't know how much weight current researcher's would give to that
estimate.     
=========================================
Allen J. Kihm
Department of Earth Science
Minot State University
Minot, ND 58701
<kihm@warp6.cs.misu.nodak.edu>
=========================================