Oil Futures

From
Date
For all of you who are tired of the "bolide/buster" strings how about
discussing something REALLY speculative, the future of the oil biz. Last
week I read an article in the London Times that suggested at current levels
of consumption the world's proven oil reserves would only last until about
2007. That's not too far away. First, is this true? People have been
regularly predicting imminent oil shortages since the turn of the century.
However, I think we all know that the oil can't last forever and that, at
least in industrialized western countries, we've taken very few serious
steps toward switching to other fuels, solar, nuclear, etc. Given the
current data, when (if ever) will the shortage hit? How about political
stability in the Middle East with Saudi Arabia running a deficit and all?
Is another OPEC-style shortage likely?

Why is this of relevance to paleontologists? Like it or not, paleontology's
fate is bound to that of the petroleum industry. It and academics are the
two largest employers of paleontologists.  And it's not just the
micropaleontologists who are effected. During my graduate school days in
the 80's I knew many a vertebrate and invertebrate paleo. student who
gladly trundled off to a job in "big oil" and was seen shortly thereafter
having traded in his/her t-shirt and jeans for a business suit. So, my last
questions (and the ones that really matter) are, 1.) if and when the next
oil shortage hits will it make much of an impact on the paleo. community?
and 2.) how should students/student advisors adjust their educational
programs/recommendations to take advantage of whatever is in store for the
energy industries of the future? [Please try to refrain from answering "Get
out of paleontology."]


Norm MacLeod



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Norman MacLeod
Micropalaeontological Research
N.MacLeod@nhm.ac.uk (Internet)
N.MacLeod@uk.ac.nhm (Janet)

Address: Dept. of Palaeontology, The Natural History Museum,
         Cromwell Road, London, SW7 5BD

Office Phone: 0171-938-9006
Dept. FAX:  0171-938-9277
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