Re: Eco-environmental extremism !? (posted for C. Burns)

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Date: Thu, 7 Sep 1995 08:01:28 -0700 (PDT)
From: Casey Burns <cburns@kendaco.telebyte.com>
To: paleonet-owner@nhm.ac.uk
Subject: Re: Eco-environmental extremism !?
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Here's an amusing anecdote regarding Eco-environmental extremism: In the
late 70's I was involved in a group trying to shut down the Trojan
Nuclear Power Plant northwest of Portland, OR, USA, the largest nuclear
plant in the US. We were trying to argue that not enough was known about
the long term seismology of the area - and so we should err on the safe
side and shut it down. But a cursory examination of the geology even by
our untrained eyes revealed possible fault structures nearby (the
Northward deflection of the Columbia, the possible Portland Hills Fault,
etc) nearby. In most cases, we were using the conjecture of published
geology of the area to substantiate our arguments.

I remember the state geologist of Oregon telling
me, when discussing with him other possible geological hazards, that
there was only a 1 in 1,000,000 chance that Mt. St. Helens (only 50Km
away) would erupt in our lifetimes - and then it would only be a minor
eruption! The state geologist, and local academic geologists, refused to
take a professional stand on this, pleading neutrality and basing their
conclusions on known facts rather than conjecture.

Well, the volcano blew up, the plant remained operating, etc. Later
investigations by Atwater and others indicated that the Cascadian
subduction zone has experienced several large (8.5 or greater)
earthquakes in the last 2500 years, using paleontological data from
subsidence swamps, liquifaction structures, etc. Seismic reflection
profiles indicate that the nuclear plant is located on the northward
extension of the Portland Hills fault with thrust/strike-slip
characteristics (responsible for deflecting the Columbia River
some 75Km to the north). This fault may actually be a part of a larger
structure which extends from SE Oregon to SW Washington.

The utility that owns the plant couldn't afford to perform the seismic
upgrades required. They also ran out of space in their spent fuel pool
(still full of rods - some 5 or more reactor's worth, kept from
fissioning only by barium salts and control rods). So they mothballed the
plant. However, the waste, and much more of it than 1979, is still there.
Since the reactor was mothballed, the utility wasn't required to perform
any other upgrades, such as increasing the strength of the spent fuel
pool to withstand an 8.5. The waste is still there as well as no
place lined up for permanent disposal. Had our theories and conjecture
not been so lightly dismissed in 1979, there would be a whole lot less of
it. I believe that this is a major accident waiting to happen.

Similarly, paleontologists and climatologists are making noises about
global warming, increased UV resulting from ozone depletion, as well as
the current extinction event that we as a species are responsible for.
Since Paleontology has a unique perspective on the past when compared to
the other sciences, it is the only science available to make predictions
about the future, and to give us an idea of what we are doing to the
world at present. Rather than wait for governments to act, I feel that
Paleontology is in a unique position to provide leadership on how our
human species should behave. (Undoubtedly, this would make the discipline
more popular, and possibly more funded!)

Pardon me, these are just the uneducated ramblings of an occasional
eco-extremist, amateur paleontologist!

Casey Burns