revised growth of paleo data set

[John Alroy <jack@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

I worked out a way to increase my reference database by including  
older references cited in synonymy lists, which I have on-line. This  
adds about 500 references, many of which are 19th century, but it  
also smooths out the pre-WWII 20th century data. The revised data set  
for 1900-present is appended. I have binned the data at two-year  
intervals instead of three-year intervals. This time I consolidated  
multiple references by the same author in a single year (e.g.,  
Hibbard 1951a, 1951b, etc. = one reference). Finally, I give data  
back to 1880 instead of 1900 although all of these early references  
are from the synonymy lists.

The results are basically the same; the WWI "extinction event" is  
still present, although it is mostly expressed as a plateau and is  
harder to make out against the noise. The WWII "extinction" is much  
more pronounced; 1946-47 is the worst interval back to 1900-02. The  
80's-90's plateau is also still present, although that's no surprise  
because very few references in this interval are known to me only  
through synonymy lists. The peak is at 1980-81, a couple years before  
the BFV peak. An RMA regression on 1946-1980 gives an r2 of 0.903 and  
a rate of increase of 7.5%; the somewhat flatter 1966-1980 interval  
gives r2 = 0.783, increase = 4.7%. This is still a fast rate, but I  
think you could make a case for _two_ plateaus; one from 1966-1974,  
one from 1980-present, with the four years in between as a bridge.  
Note that the 1992-93 sampling interval has just about as many  
references as the preceding ones back to 1980, indicating that the  
delay in getting to my desk for most references is on the order of a  
couple of years at most (the 30 references for 1994-95 are for about  
half as much time as the other intervals, of course).

1880	3
1882	4
1884	6
1886	3
1888	5
1890	5
1892	11
1894	14
1896	12
1898	17
1900	6
1902	11
1904	13
1906	11
1908	13
1910	9
1912	16
1914	21
1916	16
1918	9
1920	19
1922	14
1924	13
1926	13
1928	17
1930	18
1932	29
1934	33
1936	31
1938	18
1940	39
1942	21
1944	18
1946	8
1948	19
1950	13
1952	15
1954	31
1956	38
1958	27
1960	44
1962	37
1964	43
1966	72
1968	67
1970	64
1972	77
1974	74
1976	94
1978	99
1980	124
1982	104
1984	113
1986	118
1988	108
1990	117
1992	104
1994	30